Are Robotaxis on the Brink of a Breakthrough?

When Google sent its small white and gray test vehicles for autonomous driving onto California’s roads in 2014, the internet giant was still met with skepticism. The pod-like vehicles, often ridiculed for t heir compact shape, weren’t particularly powerful and were never intended by Google for potential mass production. At that time, it wasn’t clear how serious the mega-corporation from Mountain View was about autonomous driving. Today, however, the Alphabet subsidiary Waymo is setting the global standard for self-driving technologies.

And Waymo is not the only tech company challenging the automotive industry in the field of autonomous driving. Alongside Alphabet, other major U.S. corporations such as Intel, Amazon, and until recently, Apple have entered the arena. However, the iCar project is currently on hold. From China, internet giant Baidu and ride-hailing provider Didi Chuxing have also joined the competition. Startups fully dedicated to autonomous driving include Zoox (now owned by Amazon), GM’s Cruise, Pony.AI, and AutoX, among others. And the list could go on.

Why Autonomous Driving Attracts So Many New Players

“The automotive industry no longer consists solely of car manufacturers and suppliers,” says Ricky Hudi, former head of electronics at Audi and now Chairman of The Autonomous, an international network for safe autonomous mobility. “Chip manufacturers, software developers, disruptors, cloud providers, and many others play a vital role in developing safe autonomous driving. The industry can learn from the mindset and working methods of Silicon Valley, which has become globally successful through collaboration as an ecosystem.”

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That the number of new players in autonomous driving has exploded in recent years is hardly surprising given the enormous financial potential. According to consulting firm Strategy&, the global market volume for driver assistance systems and autonomous driving functions could exceed $270 billion by 2030.

Even though Elon Musk is set to present the first version of Tesla’s Cybercab in early October 2024, new mobility providers may outpace the traditional auto world in this sector. “As long as laws and regulations allow it, ride-hailing providers will be among the fastest to capitalize on the market potential of robotaxi services,” says Harald Proff, Partner and Head of Automotive Industry at Deloitte. “For some of today’s providers, the entire business model and valuation are already based on the assumption that autonomous ride services will become the norm in the foreseeable future.”

Waymo Dominates the Robotaxi Market in San Francisco

The company with the highest expertise in fully autonomous driving currently belongs to Alphabet, which spun off Waymo in 2016. Led for years by former Hyundai and Ford executive John Krafcik, Waymo has specific know-how in software and hardware, particularly in system integration and data competence. Its latest success: full regulatory approval for its service in San Francisco. Since August 2023, both Waymo and GM’s Cruise have been allowed to transport paying passengers throughout the city 24/7, even without a safety driver. While Cruise suffered a devastating setback after a major accident in October 2023 and is only slowly recovering, Waymo continues to surge forward.

In early 2024, a California regulatory agency approved Waymo to operate further south of San Francisco, expanding into an area about 60 kilometers (37 miles) away, covering Sunnyvale, the San Francisco Airport, and Google’s Mountain View headquarters. However, Waymo has stated that it currently has no immediate plans to expand its service area. Within San Francisco, Waymo recently operated a fleet of 250 vehicles.

Under the name Waymo One, one of the first commercial robotaxi services is available on demand for test customers. Both in Phoenix and San Francisco, Waymo exclusively uses the Jaguar I-Pace as its vehicle base. Since September 2021, Waymo has had the necessary permit from the California Department of Motor Vehicles, allowing it to establish full pricing structures for its service in San Francisco and Silicon Valley.

Automakers Are Partnering with Mobileye

Like Waymo, Mobileye, a subsidiary of Intel, is aiming for a comprehensive platform solution for autonomous driving. Mobileye first gained significant attention in the automotive industry in 2016 through a partnership with BMW, where it contributed its machine vision expertise. This was followed by collaborations with Great Wall, Geely, and Toyota, focusing on developing advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). The key interest in these partnerships has been Mobileye’s EyeQ system-on-chip (SoC) technology, which enhances the co mputer vision capabilities of autonomous vehicles.

However, Mobileye doesn’t want to be just a hardware and software supplier. “We want to become a Mobility-as-a-Service provider where it makes sense,” says Johann Jungwirth, Vice President of MaaS at Mobileye, in an interview with automotiveIT. In 2020, Intel acquired the Israeli mobility platform Moovit, which Mobileye plans to use to launch its own robotaxi service. The company has also partnered with Sixt to roll out a fully autonomous shuttle service in Munich, though a company spokesperson has confirmed that the launch has been delayed. Additional partnerships with Deutsche Bahn and Benteler’s Holon aim to close the gap between rail and road transport.

Mobileye is also expanding its activities in China through a collaboration with China FAW Group, developing new ADAS and AV products based on its SuperVision and Chauffeur platforms. Zeekr, a Chinese EV brand, rolled out SuperVision via an OTA update in about 110,000 vehicles in 2023. As part of a collaboration with Geely, three more brands—including Polestar—will adopt SuperVision-based ADAS technology. The Polestar 4, which debuted in China in summer 2023 and is expected to launch globally in 2024, features a SuperVision-based driver assistance system from the start. At the IAA Mobility 2023 in Munich, Mobileye also announced a new partnership with Valeo to supply next-generation software-defined imaging radar systems for future driver assistance systems.

Apple’s Autonomous iCar Is History

For years, Apple was suspected of planning to launch an autonomous vehicle. However, potential partners from the automotive industry, such as Hyundai and Nissan, consistently denied any involvement. According to Bloomberg, Apple’s autonomous electric vehicle was once scheduled for release within four years. But as of early 2024, plans for the iCar are officially dead.

Whether it was intended for private customers or robotaxi fleets remained unclear. However, due to California’s mandatory reporting requirements, it is confirmed that Apple was working on autonomous driving software, and its 38 self-driving test vehicles covered 21,000 kilometers (13,000 miles) in 2021.

GM Restructures Cruise After an Accident

To keep pace with development, some automakers are relying not only on their own expertise—General Motors, for example. The U.S. auto giant secured the up-and-coming tech startup Cruise as early as 2016. With the help of the San Francisco-based startup, GM managed to roll out an electric and autonomous shuttle. And GM seemed satisfied with the development—for the time being: In the summer of 2021, the parent company increased Cruise’s credit line to $10 billion. That same year, the company deployed 183 self-driving, retrofitted Chevrolet Bolts in San Francisco, covering more than 10,000 kilometers without a safety driver.

After years of testing and a widely publicized test ride by co-founder, CTO, and CEO Kyle Vogt without a safety driver, the service finally launched officially in February 2022—albeit with some restrictions. GM was convinced as well: The automaker not only acquired SoftBank Vision Fund’s equity stake for $2.1 billion but also assumed its payment obligations amounting to $1.35 billion.

Recently, however, the success story of GM's subsidiary has taken a dark turn. Cruise had permission to expand its driverless operations in San Francisco for only a few weeks. After two devastating accidents, the shuttle service is now banned from operating vehicles without a human driver. GM replaced Cruise’s top management, and all public road operations were halted. A software update for all 950 robotaxis—labeled as a voluntary recall by Cruise—is supposed to prevent future accidents. As a result of the driving ban, the company also suspended its services in other U.S. cities. Additionally, GM has now halted production of the new autonomous Origin vehicle series, which was being developed in collaboration with Honda.

Motional Develops an Autonomous Ioniq 5

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Motional is a relatively young company. Founded in 2020 as a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, the company quickly introduced an autonomous version of the electric Ioniq 5. The robotaxi is based on Hyundai’s Electric Global Modular Platform (E-GMP) and operates at SAE Level 4 without a safety driver. More than 30 sensors mounted on the vehicle—including cameras, radar, and lidar—ensure 360-degree environmental detection. According to Hyundai, Motional's driverless technology also relies on machine learning systems trained with real-world driving data.

Originally, a partnership with Lyft was supposed to launch the service in 2023, but since February 2022, the service has been bookable in Las Vegas during the day via the Via app. Motional has accumulated around 3.2 million autonomous test kilometers and 100,000 public rides without incident—though a safety driver remains on board.

"We have added various redundant systems to the Ioniq 5 robotaxi, along with a package of essential technologies that ensure passenger safety and comfort," says Woongjun Jang, head of Hyundai's Autonomous Driving Center. In challenging road conditions, a Motional employee can connect with the vehicle remotely. "We are now focusing on mass commercialization," adds Karl Iagnemma, President and CEO of Motional. To achieve this, the company will leverage TÜV Süd's expertise in evaluating safety architectures, functional safety, and cybersecurity to review processes, system designs, and analysis data.

Baidu, Didi, and AutoX Are Working on Their Own Autonomous Services

There is also significant movement in autonomous mobility in China, still the world's most important auto market. In the Middle Kingdom, the Google equivalent Baidu is driving forward the development of self-driving vehicles. Its test fleet consists of more than 500 vehicles that have already logged over seven million test kilometers on public roads. In 2017, Baidu launched the Apollo ecosystem, which now includes more than a hundred companies from the automotive and tech industries—German OEMs such as BMW and Daimler are also on board. The open platform provides participating partners with data, interfaces, source code, and tools for advancing autonomous driving functions. In 2024, Tesla struck a navigation and mapping deal with Baidu to operate its new Full Self-Driving (FSD) autopilot version in China.

Similar to Uber in the U.S., China’s ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing has been developing its own robotaxi service. In 2023, Didi partnered with electric vehicle manufacturer GAC Aion to establish a joint venture called Aidi Technology, aiming to bring an SAE Level 4 autonomous electric vehicle to market. The vehicle will be based on GAC Aion's AEP3.0 electric platform, with the first production model reportedly debuting in 2025.

In 2021, Didi partnered with Volvo for its robotaxi tests. The Swedish premium automaker provides specially modified XC90 SUVs equipped with the necessary driver assistance and support systems for automated steering and braking. Together with the Chinese company, additional software and hardware have been integrated. To further develop self-driving vehicles, Didi Chuxing reportedly aims to raise about $500 million from investors. The valuation of the Chinese mobility giant’s autonomous vehicle division is estimated at around $6 billion.

A relatively unknown startup in the West, AutoX is also on the path to launching its own robotaxi service. Backed by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, AutoX was founded in 2016 and already operates over 100 self-driving shuttles in five Chinese metropolises. This includes Shenzhen, where AutoX was the first company to deploy 25 test vehicles without safety drivers across a 144-square-kilometer urban test area. In March 2023, AutoX became Shanghai’s first fully driverless robotaxi operator. Like Waymo, AutoX uses the Chrysler Pacifica minivan, which the Chinese startup is now also testing in California.

Volkswagen Collaborates With Apex.AI

Volkswagen's mobility brand Moia is using Apex.AI’s operating system to bring its proprietary Passenger Management System to market in the autonomous ID. Buzz. The ride-pooling subsidiary aims to digitize passenger interactions extensively. The new in-cabin safety monitoring system will enable door automation and provide assistance functions as needed. "The acceptance of autonomous ride-pooling largely depends on whether people trust such a service in every situation," emphasizes Moia CEO Sascha Meyer. "A powerful Passenger Management System is a key requirement for a mobility service, and Apex.AI’s middleware is an ideal foundation."

Amazon Pursues Autonomous Driving With Zoox

Amazon-owned robotaxi developer Zoox has brought its vehicle—without a steering wheel or pedals—onto a public road in the U.S. The four-passenger vehicle completed its first test run between two company buildings in Foster City, California, Zoox announced in February 2023. The vehicle reached speeds of up to 35 mph, stopped at traffic lights, and made left and right turns. Following the initial test, a shuttle service for employees is now planned. Zoox is preparing to launch a robotaxi service in Las Vegas and is also testing retrofitted Toyota SUVs with sensors in San Francisco and Seattle.

Renault Assesses Robotaxi Potential Through Numerous Tests

In Europe, another heavyweight from the "old automotive world" is making moves in the robotaxi space: Renault recently participated in the Roland-Garros tennis tournament in Paris with Level 4-equipped visitor shuttles on select routes. In 2026, a similar mobility offering is set to launch in Châteauroux, France. The goal is also to develop an electric minibus platform based on the Renault Master van. However, Renault sees the technology as too costly for private customers and believes there is no demand. As a result, the company is focusing on Level 2 and Level 2+ technology, which assists drivers but does not relieve them of vehicle control responsibilities.

The French automaker views autonomous functions as economically viable primarily in shared mobility services, such as public transportation. To this end, the company is developing an electric, robotized, and pre-equipped "miniBus platform" that incorporates automation solutions from specialized partners. Renault expanded its expertise for the Roland-Garros tournament through collaboration with autonomous vehicle specialist WeRide. "We will offer autonomous vehicles in public transport," Renault stated.

The annual demand for autonomous minibuses is estimated at several thousand units. To assess local needs, Renault is conducting multiple pilot projects, including "Mach 2," which will integrate a fleet of automated electric minibuses into Châteauroux’s public transit network starting in 2026. In addition to WeRide, Renault will also collaborate with EasyMile and Milla for automation solutions.

This article was first published at automotiveit.eu